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        全球汇市的新动向

        发布:2017-12-15 19:41 来源: 《中国外汇》2017年第24期 作者:沈建光

        滴滴28 www.mexicanrestaurantaustin.com 全球汇市的新动向

        New Trends in the Global Foreign Exchange Market

        /沈建光

        By Shen Jianguang

        9月以来,影响全球金融市场的经济与政治事件层出不穷,汇市处于明显的震荡态势。预计当前及未来一段时间内,很难在全球找到一个明显强势或者弱势的货币,美元、欧元、日元、英镑乃至人民币,均将大概率处于双向波动区间。展望未来,左右全球汇率波动的主要因素有以下三方面。

        Since September, global financial markets have been buffeted by a steady stream of unanticipated political and economic developments. The foreign exchange market has been no exception. It is now difficult to state unequivocally which currency is strong and which is weak. Moreover, this uncertain state of affairs could hold true for some time. In general, it is likely that the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound and even the renminbi will move sideways in two-way range trading. Looking forward, there are three main factors influencing global exchange rate movements.

        其一,经济超预期的反弹情况。今年以来,全球经济积极向好,欧、美、日等发达经济体以及中国经济均出现了超预期增长。特别是欧洲经济,呈现了强劲的复苏态势,时隔八年增速首次超过美国,支持前三季度欧元强势升值。9月中旬以来,美国经济也利好不断:尽管存在飓风影响,但三季度美国GDP初值仍然达到了3%的超预期水平,加之税改利好的推动,美元指数表现更为突出。

        First, the global economy has rebounded more than expected. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has been making good progress. Developed economies in Europe, as well as the US, Japan and others, in addition to China, have recorded unexpected growth. In particular, the European economy showed a strong recovery trend, and its growth rate surpassed that of the US for the first time in more than eight years. That supported the strong appreciation of the euro over the first three quarters of the year. Since mid-September, the US economy has seen positive growth. Despite the impact of devastating hurricanes, the initial reading of US gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 3%, which is above expectations. Coupled with the prospect of tax reform, the US dollar index was relatively firm.

        中国的表现同样超出预期,前三季度整体保持6.9%的增长,表明中国经济韧劲增强和回旋余地增大。除了传统的基建和房地产起到一定的支撑作用,服务业的快速发展,以及在互联网、移动支付、新能源等带动下的经济新动能也作用明显。

        China’s economic performance surpassed expectations as well, and overall growth came in at 6.9% in the first three quarters, indicating that China’s economy is becoming more resilient. In addition to the traditional economic drivers of infrastructure and real estate, the rapid growth of the service industry, the Internet, mobile payments and new energy played a significant role in driving the economic expansion.

        可以看到,今年全球经济回暖以及各国经济的积极表现超出早前市场预期,为本国货币走势提供了支持。未来各国经济增长是否可持续将成为左右其汇率波动的关键因素之一。

        The global economic rebound this year and the stronger performance of various other key economies have created momentum for a number of currencies. The sustainable development of the economic growth of various countries in the future will be one of the key factors affecting these exchange rate fluctuations.

        其二,政治稳定性前景。政治风险对于近两年全球汇率走势的影响巨大,而笔者对美元走强在未来能否持续的疑虑也主要来自于政治方面。Second, there are greater expectations of political stability. Political risk had a major impact on global exchange rate movements over the past two years. The author believes that political uncertainties may yet undermine the strength of the US dollar.

        112日,美国众议院公布了税改法案的详细内容,但税改前景仍引发多方质疑。其原因如下:第一,对跨国公司积累的海外收益征收最高12%的税负高于此前特朗普的建议,预计这对推动境外利润回流的作用将非常有限;第二,“淘汰”遗产税也被“在数年内逐步推进”所替代,慢于早前特朗普的承诺;第三,尽管公司税率从35%削减至20%,一些商业团体仍反对强烈,其能否在国会获得通过存在变数;第四,从长期来看,能否在经济增长中弥补减税带来的赤字增加仍具不确定性。除此以外,通俄门调查的步步紧逼,使得特朗普未来的执政前景并不十分明朗,或许会对美元形成一定的冲击。

        On November 2, the US House of Representatives announced details of the tax reform bill. Two weeks later the bill was approved. However, the prospect of tax reform remains a public concern, behind which the reasons are as follows. First, the tax burden on multinational corporations accumulating overseas profits is up to 12%, which is higher than that of President Trump’s past suggestions. It is expected that the bill will have a very limited effect in promoting the return of corporate profits parked overseas. Second, the bill would substantially raise the threshold for payment of inheritance tax. It will ultimately abolish the tax though it will delay the starting date to 2024. Third, some business groups are opposed to the bill, despite a cut in corporate tax rates from 35% to 20%, and this could be a substantial obstacle to passage. Fourth, in the long run, whether the deficit increase caused by tax cuts can be offset by revenue from greater economic growth remains uncertain. In addition, the ongoing investigation of Russia gate could jeopardize the Trump administration, and this may have an impact on the dollar.

        欧洲方面,早前的德国极右势力成为德国第三大政党,以及最近西班牙加泰罗尼亚地区的分裂事件等风险,导致欧元在近一段时间出现下跌。不过,最近形势似乎有所好转:西班牙中央政府强势接管加泰罗尼亚地区,分裂势头得到控制;英国方面则暗示,将就脱欧谈判做出妥协,以推进谈判进程。如果未来欧洲政治风险能够进一步降低,有望支持欧元再度出现阶段性上涨。

        On the European front, the euro has been pressured somewhat by the German far-right forces have emerged as the third-largest political party in that country. Meanwhile, the pro-independence sentiment in the Spanish region of Catalonia has also unsettled markets. However, it seems that the situation has improved somewhat since the Spanish central government took direct administrative control over Catalonia, briefly slowing the slide towards independence. As for Britain's Brexit talks, London has shown some flexibility amid domestic concerns over a "hard Brexit," but the crunch is yet to come.  If political risk in Europe can be further reduced, the euro is expected to experience another staged advance.

        中国的政治领导力得到加强。十九大给出了未来五年甚至三十年施政纲领和蓝图,对中国经济发展提出了新的要求:国际方面,更加注重国际规则的制定与发挥全球影响力;国内方面,从以往过度追求经济发展速度,向更高质量的增长以及更加平衡的分配转变。在此背景下,去杠杆可能会加速推进,未来的经济政策可能会更加注重收入分配问题、环境问题以及房地产问题的解决。

        In China, the political leadership has been strengthened. The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China has drafted a blueprint for the economy over the next five years and further into the future, stating new requirements for the nation's economic development. In the international arena, more attention is being paid to China's role in the formulation of international rules and the exertion of its global influence. In the domestic arena, the emphasis has shifted to higher quality growth rather than growth itself. In this context, the process of deleveraging may be accelerated. Economic policies in the future may pay more attention to dealing with the issues of income distribution, environmental protection and real estate.

        其三,全球货币政策收紧的态势。今年以来,全球央行加快了货币政策紧缩的步伐。而未来,宽松货币政策退出的快慢,将成为影响汇率走势的关键。近期欧元的下跌就与欧央行没有超预期缩表,以及退出量化宽松的政策偏鸽派有关;而美联储方面极有可能于12月开启的年内第三次加息,或成为短期内支持美元上涨的重要因素。

        Third, global monetary policy has shifted as major central banks move ahead with monetary tightening. In the future, the pace of the withdrawal from quantitative easing monetary policy will be the key to influencing exchange rate movements. The recent downward pressure on the euro stems from the expected shrinking of the European Central Bank's balance sheet and the withdrawal from quantitative easing. It is also likely that in December the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the third time this year. This could buoy the dollar in the near term.

        然而,加息之后,美元是否能持续走强仍存在疑问。过去两年,每年年底美联储加息之后,美元都在第二年上半年不升反跌。此外,考虑到将在明年上任的新美联储主席鲍威尔相对鸽派,其对美元的影响也是中性偏弱的。

        However, whether the US dollar can continue to rise after the year-end interest rate hike is doubtful. In the last two years the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the year-end, but the dollar declined in the first half of the following year. In addition, it is more likely that Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve board member who is slated to become chairman next year, will maintain a dovish stance on monetary policy. That could have a neutral or slightly negative effect on the dollar.

        中国方面,今年以来的整体货币政策已经比去年明显收紧,去杠杆也导致金融市场利率明显提升。在十九大之后,决策层对去杠杆的重视再度提升,这也预示着在全球宽松货币政策退出的大背景下,中国货币政策仍将保持中性偏紧的态势,以深化前期去杠杆的努力。

        In China, monetary policy has clearly tightened since the beginning of this year. Deleveraging has also led to a marked increase in interest rates in domestic financial markets. At the 19th Communist Party Congress, policy makers stressed the need for more deleveraging. That indicated that amid a global withdrawal from quantitative easing, China's monetary policy will maintain a neutral to slightly tighter posture in order to deepen the initial stage of the deleveraging program.

        总而言之,近期各国货币汇率走势基本取决于多方力量的对比。预计年底之前,美元汇率将处于一个震荡波动的区间,全球范围内短期也很难找到一个绝对强势的货币。从今后几年来看,笔者认为,美元仍将整体弱势;欧元对美元还有升值的空间;人民币将呈双向波动态势,中间值在目前6.5左右的水平。

        All in all, the recent trends of exchange rates in various countries basically depend on the interaction of a number of forces. It is expected that by the end of the year, the dollar will be volatile. It is difficult to find an absolutely strong currency in the world in the short term. In the coming few years, the author believes that the dollar will generally remain weak. There is still room for appreciation of the euro against the dollar, and the renminbi will be fluctuating around its current parity level of around 6.5 to the dollar.

        作者系瑞穗证券亚洲公司董事总经理、首席经济学家

        The author is managing director and chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.

         

         

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